The changing definition and cultural meaning of “popularity” is becoming a niggling little bee in my bonnet, so it was interesting to read this article (linked above) flipping the issue over and asking how and why things become unpopular.
The data under scrutiny are baby name choices, and the paper contends that unpopularity generally mirrors popularity. If a name becomes popular quickly, it will fall from fashion equally rapidly.
Does this apply to other cultural forms, though? (Memes, bands, brands, etc.) After all, choosing baby names is a cultural activity unlike most others. It’s a form of personal display - you’re demonstrating your own values, imagination, heritage, taste, whim, whatever. It’s something you know you yourself will be judged on. But it’s also a bet on the future. You’re giving another human being something that’ll stick with them for the rest of their lives (in most cases), and so naming a baby is an act of imagination: how will this name affect them? You’re trying to empathise with someone who only just exists - which inevitably involves a lot of projection.
But that question leads to another question - what is everyone else called? Baby naming is at once the most personal and the most social of acts. It’s a private family choice which is inevitably public (nobody has ever kept their baby’s name a secret) and as a public act happens not only within an existing social network (anyone who cares about the birth) but a projected future one (the names your baby’s future classmates and playmates will have).
A pretty complicated decision, compared to liking a band or posting a meme!
But is it? The idea of an individual decision taking place within a current and future networked context is a familiar one: in essence it’s how markets work. I make an investment based on my personal sentiment about the investment, in the context of the current network (its current price), and the future network (where I anticipate the market is going).
With this in mind, the rapid spikes of popularity and unpopularity in some baby names look very much like the inflation and bursting of market bubbles. And the driver of unpopularity is the sudden increase in perceived risk (social risk, in this case). Would it be true to say that the more people’s ‘network perception’ plays a role in decision making, the more likely rapid popularity spikes are?
